CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2022-01-21T09:53:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2022-01-21T09:53ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/18922/-1
CME Note: This CME is associated with a filament/prominence eruption visible toward the SE limb of the Earth-facing disk in SDO AIA 193/304 near S20E60 (near AR 2934) starting around 2022-01-21T07:45Z. A corresponding dimming/ejection of material is visible to the SE in STEREO A EUVI 195 starting around the same time. The CME appears as a partial halo in STEREO A COR2. This is a possible combined arrival with the 2022-01-20T09:09Z CME.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2022-01-24T17:09Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2022-01-24T01:23Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Prediction Method: EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)
Prediction Method Note:
************************************************************************************** % Compiled module: EAM ************************************************************************************** Most pr. speed = 739.0 km/sec The EAM version you are running is: v2 u_r = 800.469 Acceleration: -1.42636 Duration in seconds: 228637.26 Duration in days: 2.6462645 ************************************************************************************** Acceleration of the CME: -1.43 m/s^2 Velocity of the CME at 1 AU: 474.3 km/s Expected date and time for the arrival of the CME: 24/01/2022 Time: 01:23 UT **************************************************************************************Lead Time: 58.15 hour(s)
Difference: 15.77 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Evangelos Paouris (UoA) on 2022-01-22T07:00Z
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