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Prediction for CME (2022-01-29T23:36:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2022-01-29T23:36Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/19004/-1
CME Note: Visible as a halo in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and as a partial halo to the W in STEREO A COR2. Associated with an eruption from AR 12936 (N17E10), visible in SDO AIA 171/193 (eruption/EUV wave) and SDO AIA 304 (post-eruptive arcades) beginning 2022-01-29T21:57Z. Also visible in STEREO A EUVI 195 beginning 2022-01-29T22:05Z. Associated with elevated 0.035-0.065 MeV electron flux at STEREO A beginning 2022-01-30T00:15Z and elevated 2.2-12 MeV proton flux at STEREO A beginning 2022-01-30T00:59Z. 13-100 MeV proton flux at STEREO A remained at background level. UPDATE (2022-02-02T12:35Z): Arrival indicated by sudden jumps in density (exceeding 15 per cc), speed (exceeding 470 km/s), temperature, and field amplitude (exceeding 13 nT). This IPS arrival time is the arrival of the sheath, and the flux rope arrived around 2022-02-02T19:43Z.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2022-02-01T21:37Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 4.0

Predicted Arrival Time: 2022-02-02T12:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 80.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 6.0
Prediction Method: Other (SIDC)
Prediction Method Note: 
sidctech@oma.be
              
              
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                        2022-02-02T12:00:00
Lead Time: 56.83 hour(s)
Difference: -14.38 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Robert Loper (M2M Office) on 2022-01-30T12:47Z
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