CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2022-01-29T23:36:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2022-01-29T23:36ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/19004/-1
CME Note: Visible as a halo in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and as a partial halo to the W in STEREO A COR2. Associated with an eruption from AR 12936 (N17E10), visible in SDO AIA 171/193 (eruption/EUV wave) and SDO AIA 304 (post-eruptive arcades) beginning 2022-01-29T21:57Z. Also visible in STEREO A EUVI 195 beginning 2022-01-29T22:05Z. Associated with elevated 0.035-0.065 MeV electron flux at STEREO A beginning 2022-01-30T00:15Z and elevated 2.2-12 MeV proton flux at STEREO A beginning 2022-01-30T00:59Z. 13-100 MeV proton flux at STEREO A remained at background level. UPDATE (2022-02-02T12:35Z): Arrival indicated by sudden jumps in density (exceeding 15 per cc), speed (exceeding 470 km/s), temperature, and field amplitude (exceeding 13 nT). This IPS arrival time is the arrival of the sheath, and the flux rope arrived around 2022-02-02T19:43Z.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2022-02-01T21:37Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 4.0
Predicted Arrival Time: 2022-02-01T23:07Z (-9.0h, +9.0h)
Prediction Method: EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)
Prediction Method Note:
************************************************************************************** % Compiled module: EAM ************************************************************************************** Most pr. speed = 628.0 km/sec The EAM version you are running is: v2 u_r = 686.472 Acceleration: -0.932098 Duration in seconds: 257495.65 Duration in days: 2.9802738 ************************************************************************************** Acceleration of the CME: -0.93 m/s^2 Velocity of the CME at 1 AU: 446.5 km/s Expected date and time for the arrival of the CME: 01/02/2022 Time: 23:07 UT **************************************************************************************Lead Time: 57.62 hour(s)
Difference: -1.50 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Evangelos Paouris (UoA) on 2022-01-30T12:00Z
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