CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2022-02-06T14:09:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2022-02-06T14:09ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/19097/-1
CME Note: This is a partial halo CME as seen in the west of STEREO A COR2 and is seen in the far south of SOHO LASCO C2/C3. The source is an eruption beginning around 2022-02-06T12:04Z near AR 12939 characterized by a filament eruption best seen seen in SDO AIA 304, dimming and an EUV wave in SDO AIA 193, and opening field lines in SDO AIA 171. The L1 shock arrival of the combined front of this CME and 2022-02-06T15:38 CME is around 2022-02-09T20:09Z and the flux rope part possibly starts around mid-day on 2022-02-10.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2022-02-09T20:09Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 5.0
Predicted Arrival Time: 2022-02-09T19:26Z (-9.0h, +9.0h)
Prediction Method: EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)
Prediction Method Note:
************************************************************************************** % Compiled module: EAM ************************************************************************************** Most pr. speed = 555.0 km/sec The EAM version you are running is: v2 u_r = 611.501 Acceleration: -0.623293 Duration in seconds: 278235.73 Duration in days: 3.2203210 ************************************************************************************** Acceleration of the CME: -0.62 m/s^2 Velocity of the CME at 1 AU: 438.1 km/s Expected date and time for the arrival of the CME: 09/02/2022 Time: 19:26 UT **************************************************************************************Lead Time: 61.15 hour(s)
Difference: 0.72 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Evangelos Paouris (UoA) on 2022-02-07T07:00Z
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