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Prediction for CME (2022-03-07T00:12:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2022-03-07T00:12Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/19367/-1
CME Note: This CME is first seen as a faint partial halo to the NW in SOHO LASCO C2 (later in C3) and followed by a more bright and slightly more narrow shape to the W/NW in STEREO A COR2. The source of this CME is an eruption to the E/SE of AR12958 (N17W28) stretching across multiple longitudes from ~W20 to ~W45 based off of the dimming signature seen in SDO/AIA 193. The eruption is best seen in the SDO/AIA 193, 211, 94, 335, and STEREO A EUVI 195 wavelengths. From STEREO A's point of view, the eruption appears as opening field lines along the Eastern limb, while in SDO/AIA's point of view, the eruption is more clear with dimming, a post-eruptive arcade, and a brief EUV wave (seen best in SDO/AIA 211). UPDATE (2022-03-11T14:50Z): Arrival Field indicated by enhancement exceeding 10 nT, accompanied by field component rotation. Preceded by pileup, followed by slight speed increase. Temperature data inconclusive.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2022-03-10T18:37Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 4.0

Predicted Arrival Time: 2022-03-11T07:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 60.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: Other (SIDC)
Prediction Method Note:

See prediction details from SIDC Ursigram excerpt below:

:Issued: 2022 Mar 08 1300 UTC
...
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC     #
# (RWC Belgium)                                                      #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
SIDC URSIGRAM 20308
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 08 Mar 2022, 1258UT
SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 08 Mar 2022 until 10 Mar 2022) 
SOLAR FLARES  : C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%) 
GEOMAGNETISM  : Quiet (A<20 and K<4) 
SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet 
PREDICTIONS FOR 08 Mar 2022  10CM FLUX: 120 / AP: 005 
PREDICTIONS FOR 09 Mar 2022  10CM FLUX: 118 / AP: 005 
PREDICTIONS FOR 10 Mar 2022  10CM FLUX: 116 / AP: 004
COMMENT: Solar activity was at low levels with two C-class flares over the past 24 hours. There are seven numbered active regions on the visible disc (5 active regions numbered by NOAA and Catania sunspot groups 52 and 53). The largest and most complex active region on disc, NOAA 2960, has increased its number of trailing spots and is now classified as beta-gamma. Despite its complexity, this region has remained stable and inactive. NOAA 2957 has lost some of its trailing spots and remained inactive beta. NOAA 2961 (previously alpha) has increased its magnetic complexity (now classifies as beta) and has produced a C1.1-class flare with peak time 15:04 UT on March 7th. Catania sunspot group 50 has remained stable and is now numbered as NOAA 2963 (beta). A C1.8-class flare (peak time 20:42 UT on March 7th) was produced from behind the north-east limb. The X-ray flare activity is expected to be at low levels for the next 24 hours with 60% chance for C-class flaring.

A filament eruption occurred around 23 UT on March 6th in the north-west solar quadrant near plage region NOAA 2958. The eruption produced a very slow partial halo CME with a primary component directed to the north-west. A glancing blow from this CME can be expected to reach Earth early on March 11th.

Lead Time: 53.55 hour(s)
Difference: -12.38 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Carina Alden (M2M Office) on 2022-03-08T13:04Z

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