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CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2022-03-08T04:24:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2022-03-08T04:24Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/19377/-1
CME Note: The likely source is an eruption from the vicinity of Active Region 2958. Dimming and opening magnetic field lines as well as an EUV wave are observed in SDO AIA 193 A starting around 2022-03-08T03:24Z, while in SDO 304 A, longitudinal brightening occurs along the active region with ejecta and bright post eruptive loops. UPDATE (2022-03-11T19:55Z): There is a weak magnetic shock at 2022-03-11T10:59Z that may possibly be associated with this CME, but the solar wind density data are inconclusive and the solar wind speed and temperature data do not support a CME arrival, and this may be part of the previous CME arrival signature which began 2022-03-10T18:37Z.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2022-03-11T17:00Z
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 15.5%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 3.25
Prediction Method: Average of all Methods
Prediction Method Note:

This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME

Lead Time: 44.68 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Auto Generated (CCMC) on 2022-03-09T20:19Z

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