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Prediction for CME (2022-03-10T19:23:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2022-03-10T19:23Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/19406/-1
CME Note: Visible in the NW of STEREO A COR2 and as a halo in SOHO LASCO C2/C3. Associated with an eruption, dimming, and EUV wave SE of AR2962 (N12W12), best seen in SDO AIA 171/193 starting around 2022-03-10T18:42Z. Associated with below-threshold increase in greater than 10 MeV proton flux at GOES-P beginning 2022-03-10T23:15Z and below-threshold increase in 13-100 MeV proton flux at STEREO A IMPACT beginning 2022-03-11T01:00Z. | ARRIVAL NOTE UPDATE - from DONKI IPS entry (2022-03-13T06:35:00-IPS-001): Sudden jump in magnetic field amplitude reaching 20 nT as well as a jump in speed, density, and temperature. A subsequent rotation can be seen in the B-field components with a decrease in temperature indicating a flux rope passage. Bz mostly north during the flux rope passage starting around 2022-03-13T22:00Z.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2022-03-13T10:11Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 6.0

Predicted Arrival Time: 2022-03-14T01:00Z
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 70.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 5.0 - 7.0
Prediction Method: Cone + HAF (SEPC, NSSC, CAS)
Prediction Method Note:

predicted shock arrival time : 2022-03-14T01:00Z

Parameters (Cone-model):
V = 670~750 km/s
half angular width = 76~87 degrees
propagation direction = N10W04 ~ N16W27

Lead Time: 43.85 hour(s)
Difference: -14.82 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Jingjing Wang (NSSC SEPC) on 2022-03-11T14:20Z

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