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Prediction for CME (2022-03-16T13:36:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2022-03-16T13:36Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/19461/-1
CME Note: Filament eruption begins around 2022-03-16T12:35Z and is seen well in SDO AIA 131, 171, 193, 304 and STEREO A EUVI 195 in the NE quadrant. Following this, brightening and an associated EUV wave is visible in STEREO A EUVI 195 and SDO AIA 193. Post eruptive arcades are then visible in SDO AIA 171 and 193 at 13:24Z. Arrival Note: Gradual field amplification accompanied by flux rope and pileup. Field amplitude only exceeds 10 nT for one data point at 2022-03-20T07:00Z, and there is no clear sudden shock. Associated with Kp reaching 3 during synoptic periods 2022-03-20T00:00Z-06:00Z and slight magnetospheric compression to about 8.5 Re at 2022-03-20T03:38Z.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2022-03-19T20:57Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2022-03-19T12:21Z
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 4.0
Prediction Method: SARM
Prediction Method Note:

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2022-03-16 20:38
 - Time at C2: 2022-03-16 13:36
 - Radial speed: 511.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 50 deg
 - Eruption location: N01E25
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - In-situ shock speed: 559.30 km/s
   - Shock arrival time: 2022-03-19 12:21 (i.e. predicted transit time: 70.75 hours)

Lead Time: 64.95 hour(s)
Difference: 8.60 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Marlon Nunez (UMA) on 2022-03-17T04:00Z

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