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CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2022-03-20T11:24:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2022-03-20T11:24Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/19493/-1
CME Note: Visible in the NE in SOHO LASCO C2 and in the NW in STEREO A COR2. Associated with an eruption from AR 12971 (N17E11), visible in SDO AIA 131/171/193/304 and STEREO A EUVI 195 beginning 2022-03-20T07:30Z.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
----

Predicted Arrival Time: 2022-03-24T01:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 2.0 - 3.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
Prediction Method Note:

https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/19495/1
Model Inputs:
2022-03-20T11:24:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-20.0, Lat.=3.0, Speed=394.0, HalfAngle=25.0, Time21.5=2022-03-20T19:19Z

Model Output:

Earth Impact:
Earth Shock Arrival Time = 2022-03-24T01:00Z (+- 7 hours)
(kp)90=2
(kp)180=3

Other Location(s) Impact:
STEREO A with esitmated shock arrival time 2022-03-23T20:00Z

Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220320_191900_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220320_191900_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220320_191900_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220320_191900_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_B.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220320_191900_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220320_191900_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_B.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220320_191900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220320_191900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220320_191900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220320_191900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220320_191900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STB_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220320_191900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220320_191900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220320_191900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220320_191900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220320_191900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif

Lead Time: 83.10 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Robert Loper (M2M Office) on 2022-03-20T13:54Z

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