CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2022-03-25T06:12:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2022-03-25T06:12ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/19529/-1
CME Note: This CME is first visible to the East in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and to the SW in STEREO A COR2. As the CME propagates out of the field of view, the halo feature becomes more clear in both SOHO and STEREO A coronagraphs. The source of this CME is the M1.4 class flare from AR12974 (~S19E36) that peaked at 2022-03-25T05:26Z (based off of GOES-17 data). The flare and the associated EUV wave (which, as seen in SDO/AIA 193/171 seems to be directed mostly towards the West) are clearly seen in SDO/AIA 193, 171, 211, and 94. The associated dimming is not pronounced. There is a data gap in STEREO A EUVI 195 during this event, but a change in the associated Active Region is visible after the data gap. UPDATE (2022-03-29T20:05Z) from Fernando: I do not see any signature of an ICME any of the days [2022-03-27 to 03-28]. There is a clear SIR crossing, though.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2022-03-28T04:02Z (-9.0h, +9.0h)
Prediction Method: EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)
Prediction Method Note:
************************************************************************************** % Compiled module: EAM ************************************************************************************** Most pr. speed = 659.0 km/sec The EAM version you are running is: v3 Utilizing the upgraded version EAM_v3 [Paouris et al. 2021] u_r = 403.437 Acceleration: 1.46002 Duration in seconds: 251431.75 Duration in days: 2.9100897 t2 is negative ************************************************************************************** Acceleration of the CME: 1.46 m/s^2 Velocity of the CME at 1 AU: 770.5 km/s Expected date and time for the arrival of the CME: 28/03/2022 Time: 04:02 UT **************************************************************************************Lead Time: 21.03 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Evangelos Paouris (UoA) on 2022-03-27T07:00Z
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