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CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2022-03-28T20:23:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2022-03-28T20:23Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/19574/-1
CME Note: This CME is observed as a halo structure in both SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO A COR2 white light coronagraph imagery. It is associated with an M1.0 flare from Active Region 12975 (N12W06) and eruption signature visible in SDO AIA 171/193 exhibiting a notable brightening/field line movement starting around 2022-03-28T19:03Z. The shock from the combined front of this CME and preceding 2022-03-28T12:09Z CME is observed around 2022-03-31T01:41Z, followed by the the first flux rope (possibly the flux rope for2022-03-28T12:09Z CME) starting around 2022-03-31T012:00Z. We are likely seeing the start of another flux rope (possibly for 2022-03-28T20:23Z CME) slightly after 2022-04-01T12:00Z when there is a sudden increase in the magnetic field and a drop in density. The end of this second ICME seems to happen on the morning of 2022-04-02 when the field becomes more turbulent, and density increases (analysis by Tarik Salman, LASSOS).
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2022-03-31T01:41Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2022-03-31T14:00Z (-9.0h, +9.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 30.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 4.0 - 6.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
Prediction Method Note:

Met Office ENLIL settings.
ENLIL version: 2.7
Resolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)
Ambient settings: a3b2-sa1
WSA version: 2.2

Please specify following CME input parameters.
Time at 21.5Rs boundary: 2022-03-30T23:15Z
Radial velocity (km/s): 700
Longitude (deg): 40W
Latitude (deg): 05N
Half-angular width (deg): 45

Notes: Majority of ejecta observed to west from available imagery with relatively low confidence for CME impact.
Space weather advisor: MOSWOC advisor

Lead Time: -13.40 hour(s)
Difference: -12.32 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Met Office (Met Office) on 2022-03-31T15:05Z

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