CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2022-04-02T13:38:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2022-04-02T13:38ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/19636/-1
CME Note: Large CME seen to the west in STEREO A COR2, in SOHO LASCO C2, and C3. The source of this CME is a M3.9 class flare from AR12975 peaking at 2022-04-02T13:55Z and the associated filament eruption. EUV wave is visible in SDO/AIA 171, 211, 193, and STEREO A EUVI 195. The eruption begins around 13:00Z.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2022-04-04T12:47Z
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 6.0 - 8.0
Prediction Method: SARM
Prediction Method Note:
CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2022-04-02 16:12 - Time at C2: 2022-04-02 13:38 - Radial speed: 1370.0 km/s - Half angle: 45 deg - Eruption location: S15W54 Inferences: - No flare association was found Predictions for Earth: - In-situ shock speed: 817.00 km/s - Shock arrival time: 2022-04-04 12:47 (i.e. predicted transit time: 47.17 hours)Lead Time: 42.78 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Marlon Nunez (UMA) on 2022-04-02T18:00Z
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