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CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2022-04-03T16:38:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2022-04-03T16:38Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/19654/-1
CME Note: The source of this CME is a large filament eruption best seen in the SW quadrant of the Earth-facing disk in SDO/AIA 304 and along the western limb in a few frames of STEREO A EUVI 304. The CME is first visible to the SW in STEREO A COR2 followed by SOHO LASCO C2 and C3.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2022-04-06T22:45Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 3.0

Predicted Arrival Time: 2022-04-05T22:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 80.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 4.0 - 6.0
Prediction Method: Other (SIDC)
Prediction Method Note:

See prediction details from SIDC Ursigram excerpt below:
:Issued: 2022 Apr 04 1035 UTC
:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/presto
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# FAST WARNING 'PRESTO' MESSAGE  from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium)         #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
A faint halo CME was detected by LASCO C2 coronagraph data around 16:30 UT on April
3rd. The CME is associated with a large filament eruption lifting off of the solar
disc from the south-eastern quadrant and has a projected speed as seen by STEREO COR2
of about 670km/s. The CME is expected to arrive at Earth by Wednesday, April 6th.
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Lead Time: 59.62 hour(s)
Difference: 24.75 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Anna Chulaki (M2M Office) on 2022-04-04T11:08Z

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