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Prediction for CME (2022-04-09T09:12:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2022-04-09T09:12Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/19709/-1
CME Note: Visible in the southwest of SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO A COR2. The source is a filament eruption seen slowly lifting off in the southwest of SDO AIA 304 starting around 2022-04-09T05:15Z. It is also visible in SDO AIA 193 and 171 and in the southwest of STEREO A EUVI 195. The CME sheath/shock arrived at 2022-04-12T10:33Z and the flux rope arrived at 2022-04-13T01:54Z. The flux rope arrival was used as the IPS entry arrival time in DONKI as the flux rope arrival was responsible for a 10nT threshold crossing in Btotal. Btotal had only reached a maximum Btotal of ~8nT for the shock arrival.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2022-04-12T10:33Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2022-04-12T15:13Z (-6.0h, +4.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 37.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 4.0
Prediction Method: Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
Prediction Method Note:

Ensemble modeling estimates the spread/uncertainty in CME arrival time predictions using the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model due to uncertainties in CME input parameters.  This is achieved by measuring N CME input parameters, then performing an ensemble of N runs of WSA-ENLIL cone model.  This gives an ensemble of N CME arrival times and impact estimates.

NASA GSFC SWRC ENLIL settings:
ENLIL version: 2.7
Resolution: low2 (256x30x90)
Ambient settings: a3b1f
WSA version: 2.2
(Enlil 2.7 w/res:low2 ambient:a3b1f, WSA2.2)

Based on analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Office and heliospheric ensemble modeling carried out at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact STEREO A and STEREO B. For 48 ensemble members (see notes section), simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach:

- STEREO A between about 2022-04-13T02:16Z and 2022-04-13T02:22Z (average arrival 2022-04-13T02:19Z) for 4% of simulations.
- STEREO B between about 2022-04-13T02:28Z and 2022-04-13T12:52Z (average arrival 2022-04-13T08:09Z) for 41% of simulations.

Additionally the CME is estimated to reach NASA missions near Earth between about 2022-04-12T09:08Z and 2022-04-12T19:07Z (average arrival 2022-04-12T15:13Z) for 37% of simulations.  The ensemble-based forecast indicates that there is a 82% chance for the maximum Kp index to be in the 3-4 range (below minor to below minor).

Links to the ensemble details of the modeled event:
https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2022-04-10_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX125/20220409_091200_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX125_anim_tim-den.gif
https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2022-04-10_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX125/20220409_091200_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX125_arrival_Earth.gif
https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2022-04-10_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX125/20220409_091200_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX125_Earth_stack.gif
https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2022-04-10_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX125/20220409_091200_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX125_probabilistic_Kp_forecast_wdist.gif
https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2022-04-10_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX125/20220409_091200_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX125_arrival_STA.gif
https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2022-04-10_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX125/20220409_091200_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX125_STA_stack.gif
https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2022-04-10_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX125/20220409_091200_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX125_arrival_STB.gif
https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2022-04-10_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX125/20220409_091200_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX125_STB_stack.gif

## Notes:
Ensemble CME modeling at M2M is performed by building sets of initial CME parameters and carrying out separate simulations for each set. This approach allows a mapping of initial CME parameter uncertainties into a statistical characterization of CME arrival times and impact at locations of interest.

Description of links: For each location, the first link shows the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model animation for the median CME input parameters, the second link shows the probabilistic distribution of predicted arrival times histogram, and the third link shows a stack plot of the WSA-ENLIL+Cone modeled magnetic field, velocity, density, and temperature for all ensemble members. For missions near Earth, a histogram of the probabilistic Kp forecast is also provided.

For the full details of the modeled event, please go here:
https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2022-04-10_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX125/Detailed_results_20220409_091200_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX125.txt
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Lead Time: 21.55 hour(s)
Difference: -4.67 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Mary Aronne (M2M Office) on 2022-04-11T13:00Z

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