CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2022-04-11T06:00:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2022-04-11T06:00ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/19735/-1
CME Note: This CME is visible as a halo in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and a partial halo in STEREO A COR2. The source is a C1.6 flare and eruption from an unnumbered region around S15E05. The eruption starts around 2022-04-11T05:00Z and is characterized by an EUV wave and dimming that is best seen in SDO AIA 193. The eruption can also be seen in SDO AIA 304. The eruption is visible in the SW quadrant of STEREO A EUVI imagery. As for the arrival, solar wind speed increased from ~400 km/s at 2022-04-14T03:00Z to 480 km/s at 09:20Z. Magnetic field components increase around 03:30Z with Btotal exceeding 10nT at 08:43Z, likely from the flux rope arrival. Density shows a gradual increase beginning at 03:30Z as well.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2022-04-14T03:37Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 6.0
Predicted Arrival Time: 2022-04-14T12:54Z (-9.0h, +9.0h)
Prediction Method: EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)
Prediction Method Note:
************************************************************************************** % Compiled module: EAM ************************************************************************************** Most pr. speed = 553.0 km/sec The EAM version you are running is: v2 u_r = 609.447 Acceleration: -0.615014 Duration in seconds: 284055.38 Duration in days: 3.2876780 ************************************************************************************** Acceleration of the CME: -0.62 m/s^2 Velocity of the CME at 1 AU: 434.7 km/s Expected date and time for the arrival of the CME: 14/04/2022 Time: 12:54 UT **************************************************************************************Lead Time: 44.62 hour(s)
Difference: -9.28 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Evangelos Paouris (UoA) on 2022-04-12T07:00Z
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