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Prediction for CME (2022-04-26T14:53:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2022-04-26T14:53Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/19940/-1
CME Note: The eruption is likely associated with a small filament eruption from the vicinity of AR 2996 (N24W07) which erupts around 2022-04-26T14:24Z as seen in SDO AIA 304 with associated coronal dimming in SDO AIA 193.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2022-04-29T06:06Z
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 4.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: SARM
Prediction Method Note:

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2022-04-26 19:15
 - Time at C2: 2022-04-26 14:53
 - Radial speed: 714.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 26 deg
 - Eruption location: N22W24
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - In-situ shock speed: 620.20 km/s
   - Shock arrival time: 2022-04-29 06:06 (i.e. predicted transit time: 63.22 hours)

Lead Time: 58.00 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Marlon Nunez (UMA) on 2022-04-26T20:06Z

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