CME ScoreBoard Header

CME Scoreboard

CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2022-04-27T14:53:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2022-04-27T14:53Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/19953/-1
CME Note: An eruption from the vicinity of AR2996 was observed using Stereo-A EUVI imagery around 2022-04-27T14:00Z, since a maneuver/calibration at SDO was occurring at the time of the eruption.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2022-04-29T23:27Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 5.0

Predicted Arrival Time: 2022-04-30T04:00Z
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 70.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 4.0 - 6.0
Prediction Method: Cone + HAF (SEPC, NSSC, CAS)
Prediction Method Note:

predicted CME shock arrival time: 2022-04-30T04:00Z
Confidence that the CME will arrive (percentage): 70%
Kp Range Lower Limit: 4
Kp Range Upper Limit: 6

Lead Time: 37.18 hour(s)
Difference: -4.55 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Jingjing Wang (NSSC SEPC) on 2022-04-28T10:16Z

CME Scoreboard Footer

CCMC Rules of the Road: CCMC requests that users notify the CCMC, CME model/technique developers and submitting forecasters/researchers before performing event and validation studies with data from the CME Arrival Time Scoreboard. It is recommended that such studies be performed with the knowledge and collaboration of developers and submitting forecasters/researchers.

If you are looking for the official U.S. Government forecast for space weather, please go to NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (https://swpc.noaa.gov). This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.

Curator: Chiu Wiegand | NASA Official: Dr. Masha Kuznetsova | Privacy and Security Notices | Accessibility | CCMC Data Collection Consent Agreement