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CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2022-04-29T07:38:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2022-04-29T07:38Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/19986/-1
CME Note: Source is the eruption from AR 2996 (N25W40) starting around 2022-04-29T07:21Z seen in SDO AIA 131, 171, 193, and 304. Also visible on the NW limb of STA EUVI 195 around the same time. Post eruptive loops and dimming happens around 08:00Z. Associated with the M1.2 flare peaking at 07:30 from AR 2996.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2022-05-01T05:00Z (-6.0h, +6.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 20.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 4.0 - 7.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
Prediction Method Note:

Met Office ENLIL settings.
ENLIL version: 2.7
Resolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)
Ambient settings: a3b2-sa1
WSA version: 2.2

Please specify following CME input parameters.
Time at 21.5Rs boundary: 2022-04-29T10:49Z
Radial velocity (km/s): 1400
Longitude (deg): 39W
Latitude (deg): 21N
Half-angular width (deg): 45

Notes: Complex fit, low confidence but possible glancing pass early 1st May.
Space weather advisor:

Lead Time: 33.05 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Met Office (Met Office) on 2022-04-29T19:57Z

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