CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2022-04-29T07:38:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2022-04-29T07:38ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/19986/-1
CME Note: Source is the eruption from AR 2996 (N25W40) starting around 2022-04-29T07:21Z seen in SDO AIA 131, 171, 193, and 304. Also visible on the NW limb of STA EUVI 195 around the same time. Post eruptive loops and dimming happens around 08:00Z. Associated with the M1.2 flare peaking at 07:30 from AR 2996.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2022-05-01T23:43Z
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: SARM
Prediction Method Note:
CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2022-04-29 09:53 - Time at C2: 2022-04-29 07:38 - Radial speed: 1397.0 km/s - Half angle: 48 deg - Eruption location: N21W37 Inferences: - Associated flare: M1.2 (N25W37). Peak at 2022-04-29 07:15 Predictions for Earth: - In-situ shock speed: 612.33 km/s - Shock arrival time: 2022-05-01 23:43 (i.e. predicted transit time: 64.10 hours)Lead Time: 51.72 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Marlon Nunez (UMA) on 2022-04-29T20:00Z
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