CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2022-04-29T07:38:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2022-04-29T07:38ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/19986/-1
CME Note: Source is the eruption from AR 2996 (N25W40) starting around 2022-04-29T07:21Z seen in SDO AIA 131, 171, 193, and 304. Also visible on the NW limb of STA EUVI 195 around the same time. Post eruptive loops and dimming happens around 08:00Z. Associated with the M1.2 flare peaking at 07:30 from AR 2996.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
----
Predicted Arrival Time: 2022-05-02T05:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 20.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 4.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (BoM)
Prediction Method Note:
CAT tool params: Lat 24, Lon 59, half-cone 45, speed 1009, 21.5Rs time 29/1016Lead Time: 52.82 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Duty Forecaster (ASWFC) on 2022-04-30T00:11Z
CCMC
Rules of the Road: CCMC requests that users notify the CCMC, CME
model/technique developers and submitting forecasters/researchers before
performing event and validation studies with data from the CME Arrival
Time Scoreboard. It is recommended that such studies be performed with
the knowledge and collaboration of developers and submitting
forecasters/researchers.
If you are looking for the official U.S. Government forecast for space weather, please go to NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (https://swpc.noaa.gov). This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
Curator: Chiu Wiegand | NASA Official: Dr. Masha Kuznetsova | Privacy and Security Notices | Accessibility | CCMC Data Collection Consent Agreement