CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2022-05-03T18:12:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2022-05-03T18:12ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/20071/-1
CME Note: CME is seen to the NE in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and to the NW in STEREO A COR2 imagery. The source is likely the dimming seen near disk center above AR 3004 in SDO AIA 171 around 2022-05-03T15:00Z. This dimming is also observed to the west in STEREO A EUVI 195 around the same time. UPDATE (2022-05-09T16:27Z): Weak arrival signature indicated by sudden but weak field amplification (only to about 8.5 nT), accompanied by component rotation. Because the L1 solar wind is otherwise quiet, we can see an associated pileup beginning around 2022-05-08T08:03Z. The speed and temperature increase, but they're still pretty low at around 330-340 km/s and 25-35 kK, so these are inconclusive. There are potential signs of separate sheath and flux rope at 2022-05-08T06:24Z and 2022-05-08T12:43Z, respectively.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2022-05-08T06:24Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 3.0
Predicted Arrival Time: 2022-05-08T08:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 2.0 - 3.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
Prediction Method Note:
NASA GSFC SWRC ENLIL settings: ENLIL version: 2.7 Resolution: low2 (256x30x90) Ambient settings: a3b1f WSA version: 2.2 (Enlil 2.7 w/res:low2 ambient:a3b1f, WSA2.2) No notification was sent due to the low speed of this CME (226 km/s).Lead Time: 84.10 hour(s)
Difference: -1.60 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Mattie Anastopulos (M2M Office) on 2022-05-04T18:18Z
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