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CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2022-05-03T18:12:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2022-05-03T18:12Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/20071/-1
CME Note: CME is seen to the NE in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and to the NW in STEREO A COR2 imagery. The source is likely the dimming seen near disk center above AR 3004 in SDO AIA 171 around 2022-05-03T15:00Z. This dimming is also observed to the west in STEREO A EUVI 195 around the same time. UPDATE (2022-05-09T16:27Z): Weak arrival signature indicated by sudden but weak field amplification (only to about 8.5 nT), accompanied by component rotation. Because the L1 solar wind is otherwise quiet, we can see an associated pileup beginning around 2022-05-08T08:03Z. The speed and temperature increase, but they're still pretty low at around 330-340 km/s and 25-35 kK, so these are inconclusive. There are potential signs of separate sheath and flux rope at 2022-05-08T06:24Z and 2022-05-08T12:43Z, respectively.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2022-05-08T06:24Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 3.0

Predicted Arrival Time: 2022-05-07T18:00Z
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 40.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 5.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
Prediction Method Note:

Met Office ENLIL settings.
ENLIL version: 2.7
Resolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)
Ambient settings: a3b2-sa1
WSA version: 2.2

Please specify following CME input parameters.
Time at 21.5Rs boundary: 2022-05-04T05:52Z
Radial velocity (km/s): 407
Longitude (deg): 009E
Latitude (deg): 05N
Half-angular width (deg): 29

Notes: Re-analysis of missed event - messy partial halo visible on St A COR2 and Lasco, probably related to dimming visible on e.g. AIA171 near centre-disc and AR3004 03/1700Z. Fitted to two main lobes as a broad cone heading slightly N and E of sun-Earth line.
Space weather advisor: Michael Lawrence, Kirk Waite

Lead Time: 60.73 hour(s)
Difference: 12.40 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Met Office (Met Office) on 2022-05-05T17:40Z

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