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Prediction for CME (2022-05-03T18:12:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2022-05-03T18:12Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/20071/-1
CME Note: CME is seen to the NE in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and to the NW in STEREO A COR2 imagery. The source is likely the dimming seen near disk center above AR 3004 in SDO AIA 171 around 2022-05-03T15:00Z. This dimming is also observed to the west in STEREO A EUVI 195 around the same time. UPDATE (2022-05-09T16:27Z): Weak arrival signature indicated by sudden but weak field amplification (only to about 8.5 nT), accompanied by component rotation. Because the L1 solar wind is otherwise quiet, we can see an associated pileup beginning around 2022-05-08T08:03Z. The speed and temperature increase, but they're still pretty low at around 330-340 km/s and 25-35 kK, so these are inconclusive. There are potential signs of separate sheath and flux rope at 2022-05-08T06:24Z and 2022-05-08T12:43Z, respectively.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2022-05-08T06:24Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 3.0

Predicted Arrival Time: 2022-05-08T09:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC)
Prediction Method Note:

Please enter the following information for your prediction:
SWPC ENLIL settings:
ENLIL version:
Resolution:
Ambient settings:
WSA version:

CME input parameters
Time at 21.5Rs boundary:
Radial velocity (km/s):
Longitude (deg):
Latitude (deg):
Half-angular width (deg):

Notes:
No Kp listed in simulation.

Lead Time: 58.40 hour(s)
Difference: -2.60 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Mary Aronne (M2M Office) on 2022-05-05T20:00Z

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