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Prediction for CME (2022-05-06T21:24:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2022-05-06T21:24Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/20101/-1
CME Note: Visible in the NE in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and in the NNW in STEREO A COR2. Associated with field line rising faintly visible over NW limb in SDO AIA 171 beginning 2022-05-06T18:45Z. Associated with filament eruption centered near N40E40, visible in SDO AIA 304 beginning 2022-05-06T19:03Z. Complicated leading edge structure with two apparent leading edges, but the entire structure is moving together. Analysis of L1 signature on 05-10 and 05-11 by LASSOS: No CME on 05-10: magnetic field components do not display smooth rotations, the proton density is not low, and the ion temperature is really low but has been low starting with 05-08. 05-10: increases in the magnetic field, proton density, and bulk speed are probably happening because the faster solar wind is catching up to the slower solar wind and compression is happening at the interface. If we look at late 05-12 and beyond, the sharp increases on 05-11 are associated with a possible SIR (see around 12:00 on May 12).
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2022-05-10T15:00Z
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 40.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 5.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
Prediction Method Note:

Met Office ENLIL settings.
ENLIL version: 2.7
Resolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)
Ambient settings: a3b2-sa1
WSA version: 2.2

Please specify following CME input parameters.
Time at 21.5Rs boundary: 2022-05-07T07:00Z
Radial velocity (km/s): 581
Longitude (deg): 38N
Latitude (deg): 020E
Half-angular width (deg): 48

Notes: Large filament eruption from NE quadrant visible on SDO aia304. CME analysed using SOHO and STEREO-A with fairly good imagery
Space weather advisor: Michael Lawrence for Alister McHardy

Lead Time: 64.92 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Met Office (Met Office) on 2022-05-07T22:05Z

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