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Prediction for CME (2022-05-10T14:48:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2022-05-10T14:48Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/20145/-1
CME Note: Visible in the SE and S of SOHO LASCO C2 and C3 and the far south of STEREO A COR2. Associated with an X1.5 flare from AR 3006 starting at 2022-05-10T13:50Z and a subsequent EUV wave seen in AIA 193 and EUVI A 195. The associated eruption is characterized by dimming best seen in SDO AIA 193. It is also seen in STEREO A EUVI 195. It overlaps with the CME first visible in the southeast of SOHO LASCO C2 at 2022-05-10T15:12Z, causing some confusion in its analysis, as there are two simultaneous fronts seen in the first few images of LASCO C2 but only one front clearly seen in COR2A and C3. UPDATE (2022-05-24T) from LASSOS Team: Signature indicating possible interaction of this CME and SIR starting after ~2022-05-14T10:00Z. This interaction makes shock less clear. The SIR clears the region of material that might otherwise propagate the shock. The ICME possibly started before the SIR start - at the end of 2022-05-13 there is a smooth B-field signature indicative of an ICME.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2022-05-13T21:00Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2022-05-13T17:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 2.0 - 3.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC)
Prediction Method Note: 
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This is a 2-CME simulation together with the 2022-05-10T15:12Z CME. Parameters for the 2022-05-10T15:12Z  CME were:
CME Event ID: A8291, Start Date/Time: 2022-05-11 01:59:00Z, Latitude: -35°, Longitude: 68°, Half Angle: 21°, Radial Velocity: 247 km/s

CME 2022-05-10T14:48Z input parameters
CME Event ID: A8293
Time at 21.5Rs boundary: 2022-05-10 20:18:00Z
Radial velocity (km/s): 660 km/s
Longitude (deg): -32°
Latitude (deg): -28°
Half-angular width (deg): 26°

Notes from SWPC Forecast Discussion

Issued: 2022 May 12 0030 UTC
13-14 May could see an escalation to unsettled levels, with a chance for active conditions and slight chance for G1 (Minor) storm levels should the CME graze Earth instead of passing fully behind Earth's orbit.

Issued: 2022 May 11 1230 UTC
Solar activity reached high levels following an X1.5/1B flare (R3-Strong
radio blackout) at 10/1355 UTC from Region 3006 (S31W13,
Eao/beta-gamma). ... Type II (est. speed 718 km/s) and Type IV sweeps were associated with the flare activity, as well as a CME that was first clearly observed in SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery departing the southeast limb at 10/1448 UTC.
Analysis was inconclusive as to the actual source of the CME (either the X1 or the C4 flare). However, the analysis did indicate that the vast majority of the ejecta had a trajectory just off the Sun-Earth line, with a slight chance for a flanking portion to graze the Earth sometime on the 13th.

The narrow CME associated with a prominence/filament eruption extending from the southwest quadrant to beyond the limb was also determined to not have a major Earth-directed component.

From NOAA 3-day Geomagnetic Forecasts
Issued: 2022 May 11 2200 UTC
NOAA Kp index forecast 12 May - 14 May
                May 13   
21-00UT           3
Lead Time: 69.13 hour(s)
Difference: 4.00 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Anna Chulaki (M2M Office) on 2022-05-10T23:52Z
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