CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2022-05-17T06:48:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2022-05-17T06:48ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/20230/-1
CME Note: This CME is observed to the south in SOHO LASCO C2/C3. It is also observed to the SW in STEREO A COR2, but is partially obscured by streamer. The source signature for this CME is an eruption from Active Region 31010 (S16E21) with an associated C2.9 flare as seen in SDO AIA 131/193 starting around 2022-05-17T06:03Z. UPDATE (2022-05-24T11:30Z) from LASSOS Team: There is no clear magnetic shock at L1 associated with this ICME. If there is an ICME arrival, it comes at the back of a High Speed Stream, and the ICME signature is weak.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2022-05-20T05:30Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
Prediction Method Note:
https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/20234/1 Model Inputs: 2022-05-17T05:48:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-39.0, Lat.=-2.0, Speed=534.0, HalfAngle=34.0, Time21.5=2022-05-17T11:54Z 2022-05-17T06:48:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-2.0, Lat.=-37.0, Speed=456.0, HalfAngle=19.0, Time21.5=2022-05-17T13:26Z Model Output: Earth Impact: Earth Shock Arrival Time = 2022-05-20T05:30Z (+- 7 hours) (kp)90=3 (kp)180=5 Other Location(s) Impact: STEREO A with esitmated shock arrival time 2022-05-19T22:49Z Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220517_115400_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220517_115400_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220517_115400_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220517_115400_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_B.gif Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220517_115400_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220517_115400_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_B.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220517_115400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220517_115400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220517_115400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220517_115400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220517_115400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STB_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220517_115400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220517_115400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220517_115400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220517_115400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220517_115400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gifLead Time: 60.67 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Michelangelo Romano (M2M Office) on 2022-05-17T16:50Z
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