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Prediction for CME (2022-05-17T09:23:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2022-05-17T09:23Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/20235/-1
CME Note: Visible in the NW of STEREO A COR2 and as a partial halo NNE in SOHO LASCO C2/C3. May be associated with an eruption from AR 13011 (N16E20), visible in SDO AIA 193 starting around 2022-05-17T08:21Z. Also associated with a double flare from AR 13011. UPDATE (2022-05-24) from LASSOS Team: Bz rotation at the end of 2022-05-21 but it is very short and there are no clear coincidental ICME signatures and no magnetic shock at L1 associated with it. If there is an ICME arrival, it comes at the back of a High Speed Stream, and the ICME signature is extremely weak.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2022-05-21T17:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 2.0 - 4.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
Prediction Method Note:

https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/20240/1
Model Inputs:
2022-05-17T09:23:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-6.0, Lat.=12.0, Speed=335.0, HalfAngle=28.0, Time21.5=2022-05-17T15:40Z

Model Output:

Earth Impact:
Earth Shock Arrival Time = 2022-05-21T17:00Z (+- 7 hours)
(kp)90=2
(kp)180=4

Other Location(s) Impact:
STEREO B with esitmated shock arrival time 2022-05-22T02:00Z

Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220517_154000_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220517_154000_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220517_154000_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220517_154000_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_B.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220517_154000_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220517_154000_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_B.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220517_154000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220517_154000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220517_154000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220517_154000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220517_154000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STB_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220517_154000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220517_154000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220517_154000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220517_154000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220517_154000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif

Lead Time: 92.52 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Robert Loper (M2M Office) on 2022-05-17T20:29Z

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