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Prediction for CME (2022-06-02T06:09:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2022-06-02T06:09Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/20403/-1
CME Note: The likely source for this CME is a filament eruption which is centered around on S35W40 best seen in SDO AIA 193/171/304 A starting around 2022-06-02T05:20Z, though it was noted in SDO 171 that faint field lines were seen leaving the disk which were out-ahead of the eruption off the limb and not associated with the filamentary material. Clear arrival signature at L1: sudden increase in B total to approximately 11.5 nT (eventually going to over 14 nT), accompanied by a sharp temporary increase in density to 51 n(cm^-3) and ion temperature. Clear shock in the magnetic field, rotation of the Bz component (briefly reaching -11 nT), gradual rotation of Bx. Solar wind speed jumped from 260 km/s to approximately 315 km/s.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2022-06-06T09:20Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 3.0

Predicted Arrival Time: 2022-06-06T00:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 40.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 6.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
Prediction Method Note:

Met Office ENLIL settings.
ENLIL version: 2.7
Resolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)
Ambient settings: a3b2-sa1
WSA version: 2.2

Please specify following CME input parameters.
Time at 21.5Rs boundary: 2022-06-02T13:15Z
Radial velocity (km/s): 525
Longitude (deg): W045
Latitude (deg): S06
Half-angular width (deg): 45

Notes: Low confidence
Space weather advisor: Rebecca Spalton

Lead Time: 82.87 hour(s)
Difference: 9.33 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Met Office (Met Office) on 2022-06-02T22:28Z

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