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Prediction for CME (2022-06-13T03:12:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2022-06-13T03:12Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/20476/-1
CME Note: This CME is seen as a partial halo to the east in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO A COR2 coronagraph imagery. The source is an eruption from AR 3032 (N21E44) around 2022-06-13T02:45Z seen best in SDO AIA 131, 171, 193, and 304. The eruption is accompanied by an M3.4 flare from AR 3032, an opening of field lines, and post eruptive dimming and loops seen in SDO AIA 131, 171, and 193 starting to form around 05:00Z. The eruption is also seen about N30E30 in STEREO A EUVI 195 and 304, where an EUV wave is observed in STEREO A EUVI 195 around 03:25Z. L1 arrival signature: B total sharply increased to 14 nT at 04:01Z, accompanied by rotation of magnetic field components and a brief sharp increase in density and temperature. Solar wind velocity increased from around 475 km/s to around 620 km/s in as seen in DSCOVR data. Flux rope is seen some time after 07:00Z.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2022-06-15T04:01Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 5.0

Predicted Arrival Time: 2022-06-15T04:47Z
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 5.0 - 7.0
Prediction Method: SARM
Prediction Method Note: 
CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2022-06-13 06:21
 - Time at C2: 2022-06-13 03:12
 - Radial speed: 1244.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 46 deg
 - Eruption location: S03E39
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - In-situ shock speed: 779.20 km/s
   - Shock arrival time: 2022-06-15 04:47 (i.e. predicted transit time: 49.58 hours)
Lead Time: 34.18 hour(s)
Difference: -0.77 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Marlon Nunez (UMA) on 2022-06-13T17:50Z
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