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Prediction for CME (2022-06-13T03:12:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2022-06-13T03:12Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/20476/-1
CME Note: This CME is seen as a partial halo to the east in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO A COR2 coronagraph imagery. The source is an eruption from AR 3032 (N21E44) around 2022-06-13T02:45Z seen best in SDO AIA 131, 171, 193, and 304. The eruption is accompanied by an M3.4 flare from AR 3032, an opening of field lines, and post eruptive dimming and loops seen in SDO AIA 131, 171, and 193 starting to form around 05:00Z. The eruption is also seen about N30E30 in STEREO A EUVI 195 and 304, where an EUV wave is observed in STEREO A EUVI 195 around 03:25Z. L1 arrival signature: B total sharply increased to 14 nT at 04:01Z, accompanied by rotation of magnetic field components and a brief sharp increase in density and temperature. Solar wind velocity increased from around 475 km/s to around 620 km/s in as seen in DSCOVR data. Flux rope is seen some time after 07:00Z.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2022-06-15T04:01Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 5.0

Predicted Arrival Time: 2022-06-14T23:52Z (-5.4h, +7.5h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 100.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 6.0 - 8.0
Prediction Method: Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
Prediction Method Note:
Ensemble modeling estimates the spread/uncertainty in CME arrival time predictions using the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model due to uncertainties in CME input parameters.  This is achieved by measuring N CME input parameters, then performing an ensemble of N runs of WSA-ENLIL cone model.  This gives an ensemble of N CME arrival times and impact estimates.

NASA GSFC SWRC ENLIL settings:
ENLIL version: 2.7
Resolution: low2 (256x30x90)
Ambient settings: a3b1f
WSA version: 2.2
(Enlil 2.7 w/res:low2 ambient:a3b1f, WSA2.2)

## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI ) ## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME update (ensemble) (STEREO A, STEREO B, Missions Near Earth) ## ## Message Issue Date: 2022-06-14T13:37:47Z ## Message ID: 20220614-AL-001 ## ## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.


## Summary:

BETA PRODUCT. ENSEMBLE PRODUCT IS STILL IN DEVELOPMENT MODE. PLEASE LET US KNOW IF YOU HAVE ANY SUGGESTIONS FOR MODIFICATIONS.  

Ensemble modeling update on CME with ID 2022-06-13T03:12:00-CME-001 (see previous notification 20220613-AL-002). Based on analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric ensemble modeling carried out at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact STEREO A and STEREO B. For 48 ensemble members (see notes section), simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach:

- STEREO A between about 2022-06-14T13:03Z and 2022-06-14T22:18Z (average arrival 2022-06-14T17:14Z) for 100% of simulations.
- STEREO B between about 2022-06-15T08:37Z and 2022-06-15T20:11Z (average arrival 2022-06-15T13:30Z) for 31% of simulations.

Additionally the CME is estimated to reach NASA missions near Earth between about 2022-06-14T18:29Z and 2022-06-15T07:24Z (average arrival 2022-06-14T23:52Z) for 100% of simulations.  The ensemble-based forecast indicates that there is a 86% chance for the maximum Kp index to be in the 6-8 range (moderate to severe).

Links to the ensemble details of the modeled event:
https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2022-06-13_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX134/20220613_031200_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX134_anim_tim-den.gif
https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2022-06-13_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX134/20220613_031200_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX134_arrival_Earth.gif
https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2022-06-13_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX134/20220613_031200_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX134_Earth_stack.gif
https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2022-06-13_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX134/20220613_031200_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX134_probabilistic_Kp_forecast_wdist.gif
https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2022-06-13_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX134/20220613_031200_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX134_arrival_STA.gif
https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2022-06-13_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX134/20220613_031200_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX134_STA_stack.gif
https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2022-06-13_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX134/20220613_031200_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX134_arrival_STB.gif
https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2022-06-13_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX134/20220613_031200_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX134_STB_stack.gif

## Notes:
This CME event (2022-06-13T03:12:00-CME-001) is also predicted to arrive as a glancing blow at Parker Solar Probe at 2022-06-14T02:00Z (plus minus 7 hours) based on previous non-ensemble heliospheric modeling (see notification 20220613-AL-002).

Ensemble CME modeling at M2M is performed by building sets of initial CME parameters and carrying out separate simulations for each set. This approach allows a mapping of initial CME parameter uncertainties into a statistical characterization of CME arrival times and impact at locations of interest.

Description of links: For each location, the first link shows the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model animation for the median CME input parameters, the second link shows the probabilistic distribution of predicted arrival times histogram, and the third link shows a stack plot of the WSA-ENLIL+Cone modeled magnetic field, velocity, density, and temperature for all ensemble members. For missions near Earth, a histogram of the probabilistic Kp forecast is also provided.

For the full details of the modeled event, please go here:
https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2022-06-13_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX134/Detailed_results_20220613_031200_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX134.txt


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NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
Lead Time: 29.02 hour(s)
Difference: 4.15 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Robert Loper (M2M Office) on 2022-06-13T23:00Z
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