CME ScoreBoard Header

CME Scoreboard

CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2022-06-13T03:12:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2022-06-13T03:12Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/20476/-1
CME Note: This CME is seen as a partial halo to the east in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO A COR2 coronagraph imagery. The source is an eruption from AR 3032 (N21E44) around 2022-06-13T02:45Z seen best in SDO AIA 131, 171, 193, and 304. The eruption is accompanied by an M3.4 flare from AR 3032, an opening of field lines, and post eruptive dimming and loops seen in SDO AIA 131, 171, and 193 starting to form around 05:00Z. The eruption is also seen about N30E30 in STEREO A EUVI 195 and 304, where an EUV wave is observed in STEREO A EUVI 195 around 03:25Z. L1 arrival signature: B total sharply increased to 14 nT at 04:01Z, accompanied by rotation of magnetic field components and a brief sharp increase in density and temperature. Solar wind velocity increased from around 475 km/s to around 620 km/s in as seen in DSCOVR data. Flux rope is seen some time after 07:00Z.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2022-06-15T04:01Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 5.0

Predicted Arrival Time: 2022-06-15T12:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 25.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 5.0 - 7.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC)
Prediction Method Note:

Please enter the following information for your prediction:
SWPC ENLIL settings:
ENLIL version:
Resolution:
Ambient settings:
WSA version:

CME input parameters
Time at 21.5Rs boundary:
Radial velocity (km/s):
Longitude (deg):
Latitude (deg):
Half-angular width (deg):

Notes from 2022-06-14T12:30Z Forecast Discussion:

The 13 Jun CME is likely to enhance the solar wind environment on 15-16 Jun as it passes near Earth. Nonetheless the bulk of the ejecta is thought to be off the Sun-Earth line.

By 15 Jun, G1 (Minor) storm conditions are considered likely, with a chance for G2 (Moderate) and a slight chance of G3 (Strong) storms, in response to the 13 Jun CME. Active conditions are expected to continue into 16 Jun.

Notes from 2022-06-14T00:30Z Forecast Discussion:

The nearby passage or flanking edge influence of today's CME is expected to be a factor on 15-16 June, potentially causing further disturbances and enhancements in the IMF and solar wind.

Most analysis and model results of the 13 Jun CME conclude a near miss for the brunt of the ejecta behind Earth's orbital position or possibly a flanking influence. Forecast confidence in any glancing blow CME influences is low; conversely, forecast confidence in timing for any CME arrival effects is considered fair.

Notes from 2022-06-13T12:30Z Forecast Discussion:

A long-duration M3/1n flare was observed at 13/0407 UTC from Region 3032 (N21E40, Dai/beta), however, sympathetic flaring was observed from Region 3030 (N20E28, Dao/beta). Type-II and IV radio emissions and radio bursts were observed in conjunction with this event. The associated CME is visible off the east in LASCO C2 imagery beginning at 13/0312 UTC and analysis of the event and CME are underway.

Lead Time: 36.02 hour(s)
Difference: -7.98 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Robert Loper (M2M Office) on 2022-06-13T16:00Z

CME Scoreboard Footer

CCMC Rules of the Road: CCMC requests that users notify the CCMC, CME model/technique developers and submitting forecasters/researchers before performing event and validation studies with data from the CME Arrival Time Scoreboard. It is recommended that such studies be performed with the knowledge and collaboration of developers and submitting forecasters/researchers.

If you are looking for the official U.S. Government forecast for space weather, please go to NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (https://swpc.noaa.gov). This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.

Curator: Chiu Wiegand | NASA Official: Dr. Masha Kuznetsova | Privacy and Security Notices | Accessibility | CCMC Data Collection Consent Agreement