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Prediction for CME (2022-06-29T02:09:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2022-06-29T02:09Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/20650/-1
CME Note: Visible in the NW in STEREO A COR2, possible faint partial halo in the N in SOHO LASCO C2. May be associated with filament eruption centered near N25E15, visible in SDO AIA 193 beginning 2022-06-28T21:48Z. Notes on the CME arrival from the LASSOS team: the start of the (sheath and fluxrope) for this CME are not clear. A potential start time for the flux rope can be 2022-07-03T19:20Z, where the rotation starts and density drops below 5 particles per cm^3. The CME signature is impacted by a very brief high speed stream which overtakes the CME at around 2022-07-03T23:00Z, when the density starts to increase.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2022-07-03T07:01Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 5.0

Predicted Arrival Time: 2022-07-04T18:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC)
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Notes from 2022-06-30T12:30Z Forecast Discussion:
Starting around 28/2200 UTC, an eruptive filament was observed in GOES-16 SUVI 304 imagery near center disk. Available SOHO/LASCO coronagraph imagery did not suggest the bulk of the eruptive material escaped the corona. However, later arriving NASA STEREO A COR2 data shows a faint slow CME on the Earth side of the Sun. The bulk of the material is on a trajectory north of Earth. The slow speeds and trajectory suggest weak glancing blow influence (at most) outside of the
3-day forecast period. Model runs suggest weak impacts on 4 July.

Lead Time: 85.02 hour(s)
Difference: -34.98 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Robert Loper (M2M Office) on 2022-06-29T18:00Z

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