CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2022-07-09T23:12:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2022-07-09T23:12ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/20787/-1
CME Note: A complicated eruption consisting of a generally unimpressive flare/subsequent eruption in coronal imagery located around center-disk (N15E10) from AR3053. A fast jet of plasma is seen sharply deflecting towards the northwest due to the present of multiple coronal holes surrounding the active region, but SOHO/C2 coronagraph imagery shows what could be a faint, wider bulk associated with this eruption generally toward the northwest and an even fainter partial halo emanating generally to the west. It is uncertain whether the halo or bulk is associated with this center-disk eruption or another simultaneous eruption occurring off the Sun's western limb; moving field lines seen in SDO AIA 171 indicate this possibility. A Stereo-A COR2A outage at the time complicates the analysis of this event. NASA M2M ran simulations of the bulk and faint shock component solutions for this event.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2022-07-12T10:35Z
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 4.5 - 6.0
Prediction Method: Average of all Methods
Prediction Method Note:
This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CMELead Time: 15.70 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Auto Generated (CCMC) on 2022-07-11T18:53Z
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