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CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2022-07-15T15:23:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2022-07-15T15:23Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/20841/-1
CME Note: Visible in the NW in STEREO A COR2 and as a partial halo N in SOHO LASCO C2. Associated with large north-central filament eruption beginning 2022-07-15T13:02Z, visible in GOES-16 SUVI 171/304. The CME arrival signature is characterized by magnetic amplification accompanied by a jump on solar wind speed and density. Some time later (2022-07-19T04:00Z) there is a drop in temperature and a change of magnetic component pattern to a more smooth one, probably indicating the arrival of magnetic cloud. B_total reached a peak of over 16 nT at 2022-07-19T00:23Z. This looks more like a flank impact of a CME.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2022-07-18T20:40Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2022-07-19T11:04Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
Prediction Method Note:

https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/20843/1
Model Inputs:
2022-07-15T15:23:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=1.0, Lat.=11.0, Speed=382.0, HalfAngle=34.0, Time21.5=2022-07-15T23:31Z

Model Output:

Earth Impact:
Earth Shock Arrival Time = 2022-07-19T11:04Z (+- 7 hours)
Duration of disturbance (hr) =23.9 (+- 8 hours)
Minimum magnetopause standoff distance: Rmin(Re) = 6.7
(kp)90=3
(kp)180=5

Other Location(s) Impact:
Parker Solar Probe with esitmated shock arrival time 2022-07-18T11:10Z
STEREO A with esitmated shock arrival time 2022-07-19T07:51Z
STEREO B with esitmated shock arrival time 2022-07-19T15:15Z

Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220715_233100_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220715_233100_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220715_233100_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220715_233100_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_B.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220715_233100_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220715_233100_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_B.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220715_233100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220715_233100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220715_233100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220715_233100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220715_233100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STB_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220715_233100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220715_233100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220715_233100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220715_233100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220715_233100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif

Lead Time: 75.80 hour(s)
Difference: -14.40 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Robert Loper (M2M Office) on 2022-07-15T16:52Z

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