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CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2022-07-15T15:23:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2022-07-15T15:23Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/20841/-1
CME Note: Visible in the NW in STEREO A COR2 and as a partial halo N in SOHO LASCO C2. Associated with large north-central filament eruption beginning 2022-07-15T13:02Z, visible in GOES-16 SUVI 171/304. The CME arrival signature is characterized by magnetic amplification accompanied by a jump on solar wind speed and density. Some time later (2022-07-19T04:00Z) there is a drop in temperature and a change of magnetic component pattern to a more smooth one, probably indicating the arrival of magnetic cloud. B_total reached a peak of over 16 nT at 2022-07-19T00:23Z. This looks more like a flank impact of a CME.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2022-07-18T20:40Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2022-07-19T17:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 80.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 4.0 - 6.0
Predicted Dst min. in nT: -100
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (BoM)
Prediction Method Note:

Likely more northward directed than model indicates due to lopsided CME.

Lead Time: 45.83 hour(s)
Difference: -20.33 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Duty Forecaster (ASWFC) on 2022-07-16T22:50Z

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