CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2022-07-16T17:09:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2022-07-16T17:09ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/20865/-1
CME Note: Visible in the WNW in STEREO A COR2, no SOHO LASCO direct imagery available during real-time analysis. May possibly be associated with dimming visible in SDO AIA 193 beginning around 2022-07-16T16:00Z and filament eruption faintly visible in SDO AIA 304 at the same time. This appears to have the same trigger as the filament eruption near S30W50, visible in SDO AIA 304 beginning around 2022-07-16T16:30Z. Possibly deflected NE due to coronal hole to the SW (centered near S15W35).
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2022-07-19T19:07Z (-9.0h, +9.0h)
Prediction Method: EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)
Prediction Method Note:
************************************************************************************** % Compiled module: EAM ************************************************************************************** Most pr. speed = 518.0 km/sec The EAM version you are running is: v3 Utilizing the upgraded version EAM_v3 [Paouris et al. 2021] u_r = 326.874 Acceleration: 1.78969 Duration in seconds: 266337.41 Duration in days: 3.0826089 t2 is negative ************************************************************************************** Acceleration of the CME: 1.79 m/s^2 Velocity of the CME at 1 AU: 803.5 km/s Expected date and time for the arrival of the CME: 19/07/2022 Time: 19:07 UT **************************************************************************************Lead Time: 35.78 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Evangelos Paouris (UoA) on 2022-07-18T07:20Z
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