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Prediction for CME (2022-07-21T01:48:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2022-07-21T01:48Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/20932/-1
CME Note: A faint, full halo CME seen in SOHO running difference imagery that seems to be associated with a C5.6-class flare occurring around the Sun's center disk from AR3060 and possibly combines with CME 2022-07-21T01:36Z, a brighter CME seen to the NE in SOHO coronagraph imagery. A Stereo-Ahead coronagraph data gap at this time increases the uncertainty of the analysis. While the halo is fast, it is visually diffuse and thus any Kp predicted by the simulation may be higher than is merited for this case. CME arrival is characterized by a sudden increase in B_total to ~17nT accompanied by increases in density, temperature, and solar wind speed (peaking around ~700km/s) at L1. This arrival is also associated with the CME first visible in SOHO LASCO C2 at 2022-07-21T01:36Z.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2022-07-23T02:28Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 5.0

Predicted Arrival Time: 2022-07-23T00:00Z (-18.0h, +18.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 70.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 4.0 - 6.0
Prediction Method: Other (SIDC)
Prediction Method Note:

A type II radio emission on 21 July 01:21UT could be associated with the
C5.6-class flare from region NOAA AR 3060. Stereo A COR2A appears to have a
data gap from that period. Based on the radio emission alone an impact may
be expected late 22-early 23, but this assessment is highly speculative.

Lead Time: 36.67 hour(s)
Difference: 2.47 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Chris Stubenrauch (M2M Office) on 2022-07-21T13:48Z

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