CME Scoreboard

Prediction for CME (2022-07-21T01:36:00-CME-001)

NASA GSFC SWRC ENLIL settings:
ENLIL version: 2.7
Resolution: low2 (256x30x90)
Ambient settings: a3b1f
WSA version: 2.2
(Enlil 2.7 w/res:low2 ambient:a3b1f, WSA2.2)

## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CMEs (Parker Solar Probe, STEREO A, STEREO B, Mars, Missions Near Earth)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2022-07-21T16:46:00Z
## Message ID: 20220721-AL-003
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.


## Summary:

Multiple CMEs have been detected as follows:
1: C-type CME detected by SOHO. 

Start time of the event: 2022-07-21T01:36Z.

Estimated speed: ~950 km/s.

Estimated opening half-angle: 25 deg.

Direction (lon./lat.): -18/11 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.

Activity ID: 2022-07-21T01:36:00-CME-001

2: O-type CME detected by SOHO. 

Start time of the event: 2022-07-21T01:48Z.

Estimated speed: ~1355 km/s.

Estimated opening half-angle: 45 deg.

Direction (lon./lat.): 2/8 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.

Activity ID: 2022-07-21T01:48:00-CME-001

Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CMEs may affect Parker Solar Probe, STEREO A, STEREO B, and Mars (glancing blow).  The leading edge of the CMEs will reach Parker Solar Probe at 2022-07-22T07:20Z, STEREO A at 2022-07-22T19:09Z, STEREO B at 2022-07-22T21:45Z, and Mars at 2022-07-25T18:00Z (plus minus 7 hours). 
  
The simulation also indicates that the CMEs may impact NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CMEs will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2022-07-22T16:38Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 8-9 (severe to extreme).
   
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CMEs: 2022-07-21T01:36:00-CME-001, 2022-07-21T01:48:00-CME-001):

http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220721_023400_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220721_023400_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220721_023400_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220721_023400_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220721_023400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220721_023400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220721_023400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220721_023400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STB_timeline.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220721_023400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif


## Notes: 

While the halo associated with CME: 2022-07-21T01:48Z is fast, it is visually diffuse and thus the Kp predicted by the simulation may be higher than is merited for this case. The simulation also contains CME: 2022-07-21T01:25Z which is not expected to impact any missions. This CME event (2022-07-21T01:36:00-CME-001) is associated with C5.6 flare with ID 2022-07-21T01:02:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2022-07-21T01:11Z.


SCORE CME typification system:
S-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s
C-type: Common 500-999 km/s
O-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s
R-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s
ER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s


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