CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2022-08-13T18:48:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2022-08-13T18:48ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/21175/-1
CME Note: This CME is visible in the SSE of SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and the SSW of STEREO A COR2. Source eruption is seen as an EUV wave and dimming near AR 13078 starting around 2022-08-13T15:30Z and best seen in SDO AIA 193 and STEREO A EUVI 195. There is a definite shock on 2022-08-17T02:16Z which indicates the arrival of a CME, but it is possible the arrival is also associated with a CME first seen on 2022-08-14T12:48Z. Apart from temperature, we observe sudden jumps in the total magnetic field, proton density, and bulk speed. A sheath region appears to follow the shock. The sheath region can be seen as having turbulent field components, elevated total magnetic field, proton density, and temperature compared to the background solar wind. The high-speed stream can be identifiable starting around 2022-08-17T14:34Z by looking at the compression in the total magnetic field and proton density and increasing bulk speed and temperature afterward.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2022-08-17T02:16Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 6.0
Predicted Arrival Time: 2022-08-17T04:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 70.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 4.0 - 6.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (BoM)
Prediction Method Note:
A lopsided, southward CME is visible in LASCO C2 and STEREO-A imagery from 13/1848UT. An eruption is visible in GOES SUVI 284 from 13/1527UT around S30E27, associated with AR3078 (S26E22, beta(At time of eruption)). Modelling indicates the majority of the material is headed too far south to be geoeffective, but that a component will impact Earth at 17/0400UT.Lead Time: 74.70 hour(s)
Difference: -1.73 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Duty Forecaster (ASWFC) on 2022-08-13T23:34Z
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