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Prediction for CME (2022-08-14T12:48:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2022-08-14T12:48Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/21181/-1
CME Note: Visible as a partial halo situated to the west in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and a partial halo in STEREO A COR2. Source is a filament eruption from AR 13076 lifting off at approximately 2022-08-14T11:42Z. Best seen in SDO AIA 193 as a EUV wave, brightening, and post eruptive arcades. Best seen in SDO AIA 304 as dark filament material lifting off the disk to the west. Also visible in STEREO A EUVI 195. Update: There is a definite shock on 2022-08-17T02:16Z which indicates the arrival of a CME, but it is possible the arrival is also associated with a CME first seen on 2022-08-13T18:48Z. Details about arrival in 2022-08-13T18:48Z note.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2022-08-17T02:16Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 6.0

Predicted Arrival Time: 2022-08-17T06:00Z (-9.0h, +9.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 70.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 4.0 - 6.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
Prediction Method Note:

Met Office ENLIL settings.
ENLIL version: 2.7
Resolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)
Ambient settings: a3b2-sa1
WSA version: 2.2

Please specify following CME input parameters.
Time at 21.5Rs boundary: 2022-08-14:17:47Z
Radial velocity (km/s): 620
Longitude (deg): 11W
Latitude (deg): 5S
Half-angular width (deg): 37

Notes: 
Space weather advisor:

Lead Time: 52.52 hour(s)
Difference: -3.73 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Met Office (Met Office) on 2022-08-14T21:45Z

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