CME Scoreboard

Prediction for CME (2022-08-13T18:48:00-CME-001)

## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME update (Parker Solar Probe, STEREO A, STEREO B, Missions Near Earth)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2022-08-15T13:13:01Z
## Message ID: 20220815-AL-001
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.


## Summary:

Update on CME with ID 2022-08-13T18:48:00-CME-001 (see previous notification 20220814-AL-002).  Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that this CME may affect Parker Solar Probe (glancing blow), STEREO A (glancing blow), and STEREO B (glancing blow).  The flank of the CME will reach Parker Solar Probe at 2022-08-15T14:00Z, STEREO A at 2022-08-16T14:00Z, and STEREO B at 2022-08-17T06:00Z (plus minus 7 hours). 

The simulation also indicates that the CME may have a glancing blow at NASA missions near Earth.  Simulations indicate that the flank of the CME will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2022-08-16T18:00Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 3-4 (below minor).
   

Updated CME parameters are:

Start time of the event: 2022-08-13T18:48Z.

Estimated speed: ~679 km/s.

Estimated opening half-angle: 26 deg.

Direction (lon./lat.): -9/-25 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.

Activity ID: 2022-08-13T18:48:00-CME-001


Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2022-08-13T18:48:00-CME-001):

http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220813_235200_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220813_235200_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220813_235200_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220813_235200_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220813_235200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220813_235200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220813_235200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220813_235200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STB_timeline.gif


## Notes: 

The previous simulation result did not include an arrival at STEREO A (see previous notification 20220814-AL-002) and included an S-type CME event with Activity ID 2022-08-13T19:48:00-CME-001.


SCORE CME typification system:
S-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s
C-type: Common 500-999 km/s
O-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s
R-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s
ER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s


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