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Prediction for CME (2022-08-14T12:48:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2022-08-14T12:48Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/21181/-1
CME Note: Visible as a partial halo situated to the west in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and a partial halo in STEREO A COR2. Source is a filament eruption from AR 13076 lifting off at approximately 2022-08-14T11:42Z. Best seen in SDO AIA 193 as a EUV wave, brightening, and post eruptive arcades. Best seen in SDO AIA 304 as dark filament material lifting off the disk to the west. Also visible in STEREO A EUVI 195. Update: There is a definite shock on 2022-08-17T02:16Z which indicates the arrival of a CME, but it is possible the arrival is also associated with a CME first seen on 2022-08-13T18:48Z. Details about arrival in 2022-08-13T18:48Z note.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2022-08-17T02:16Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 6.0

Predicted Arrival Time: 2022-08-17T05:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 75.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 6.0
Prediction Method: Other (SIDC)
Prediction Method Note:

See prediction from the SIDC Ursigram below:

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# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC     #
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SIDC URSIGRAM 20815

A partial halo coronal mass ejection (CME) was observed in LASCO C2 from around 12:48 UTC on August 14 with a speed of around 650 km/s. The CME is related to an on disc filament eruption in the north-western quadrant and was associated to the long duration C2.4 flare and type II radio emission.

The bulk of the CME is directed to the south-west but an impact at Earth is expected early on August 17."\

Lead Time: 58.38 hour(s)
Difference: -2.73 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Mary Aronne (M2M Office) on 2022-08-14T15:53Z

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