CME Scoreboard

Prediction for CME (2022-08-15T11:36:00-CME-001)

## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CMEs (Parker Solar Probe, STEREO A, STEREO B, Missions Near Earth)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2022-08-16T13:57:48Z
## Message ID: 20220816-AL-004
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.


## Summary:

Multiple CMEs have been detected as follows:
1: C-type CME detected by SOHO. 

Start time of the event: 2022-08-15T17:12Z.

Estimated speed: ~760 km/s.

Estimated opening half-angle: 24 deg.

Direction (lon./lat.): -2/-18 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.

Activity ID: 2022-08-15T17:12:00-CME-001

2: S-type CME detected by SOHO. 

Start time of the event: 2022-08-15T11:36Z.

Estimated speed: ~448 km/s.

Estimated opening half-angle: 23 deg.

Direction (lon./lat.): -7/-29 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.

Activity ID: 2022-08-15T11:36:00-CME-001

Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the combined leading edge of the CMEs may affect Parker Solar Probe, STEREO A (glancing blow), and STEREO B (glancing blow).  The leading edge or flank of the CMEs will reach Parker Solar Probe at 2022-08-17T04:23Z, STEREO A at 2022-08-18T18:00Z, and STEREO B at 2022-08-18T16:00Z (plus minus 7 hours). 
  
The simulation also indicates that the combined leading edge of the CMEs may impact NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the combined leading edge of the CMEs will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2022-08-18T06:20Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 4-6 (below minor to moderate).
   
  
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CMEs: 2022-08-15T17:12:00-CME-001, 2022-08-15T11:36:00-CME-001):

http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220815_193100_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220815_193100_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220815_193100_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220815_193100_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220815_193100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220815_193100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220815_193100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220815_193100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STB_timeline.gif


## Notes: 

This CME event (2022-08-15T17:12:00-CME-001) is associated with the M1.0 flare from AR 13078 (S22E00) with ID 2022-08-15T14:31:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2022-08-15T14:36Z.


SCORE CME typification system:
S-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s
C-type: Common 500-999 km/s
O-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s
R-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s
ER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s


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