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CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2022-08-16T02:24:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2022-08-16T02:24Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/21221/-1
CME Note: This CME is first visible to the south-southwest in SOHO LASCO C2 imagery. It appears to the southwest in STEREO A COR2 imagery with a very bright front. The source of this CME is an eruption from AR 13078 associated with filament material (SDO/AIA 304), brightening (SDO/AIA 304, 193), post-eruptive arcade (SDO/AIA 193), and possibly two flares (SDO/AIA 131).
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2022-08-19T00:01Z (-12.0h, +12.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 40.0%
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
Prediction Method Note:

Met Office ENLIL settings.
ENLIL version: 2.7
Resolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)
Ambient settings: a3b2-sa1
WSA version: 2.2

Please specify following CME input parameters.
Time at 21.5Rs boundary: 2022-08-16T07:40Z
Radial velocity (km/s): 607
Longitude (deg): 7W
Latitude (deg): 21S
Half-angular width (deg): 35

Notes: Mostly passing below Earth. Glancing blow possible.
Space weather advisor: Rebecca Spalton

Lead Time: 44.23 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Met Office (Met Office) on 2022-08-17T03:47Z

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