CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2022-08-17T14:53:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2022-08-17T14:53ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/21245/-1
CME Note: An eruption likely associated with an M2.0-class flare from AR3078. The eruption is seen in SDO 171/193/304 as a brightening with associated opening field lines and ejecta that diverge and deflect partially to the south and partially to the west, likely due to the presence of a coronal hole. The CME was observed to be bright and fairly wide in running difference imagery. Slowly-varying magnetic component rotations were observed to start around 2022-08-20T09:16Z with a potential arrival around 2022-08-20T04:53Z due to the presence of a sharp but weak increase in solar wind density and temperature, but the solar wind data is rather inconclusive of showing a clear interplanetary shock. With an IPS (beginning of an ICME sheath signature) occurring around 2022-08-20T16:00Z, it is possible that there is a complex signature with more than one ICME arrival occurring between 2022-08-20 and 2022-08-21.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2022-08-20T11:20Z (-9.0h, +9.0h)
Prediction Method: EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)
Prediction Method Note:
************************************************************************************** % Compiled module: EAM ************************************************************************************** Most pr. speed = 767.0 km/sec The EAM version you are running is: v3 Utilizing the upgraded version EAM_v3 [Paouris et al. 2021] u_r = 462.081 Acceleration: 1.18649 Duration in seconds: 246463.52 Duration in days: 2.8525870 t2 is negative ************************************************************************************** Acceleration of the CME: 1.19 m/s^2 Velocity of the CME at 1 AU: 754.5 km/s Expected date and time for the arrival of the CME: 20/08/2022 Time: 11:20 UT **************************************************************************************Lead Time: 52.02 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Evangelos Paouris (UoA) on 2022-08-18T07:19Z
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