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Prediction for CME (2022-08-16T15:24:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2022-08-16T15:24Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/21239/-1
CME Note: The source is likely an eruption associated with AR3078 (S24W12). The SDO 193/304/171 A imagery shows a brightening across all wavelengths and some ejecta leaving the active region. There appears to be a divergence in the ejecta noted in the 193 A imagery which a portion of the ejecta deflected to the west and a portion deflected to the south. A definite shock is observed at 2022-08-19T17:02Z with simultaneous, rapid increases in magnetic field intensity, particle speed, and particle density. There appears to be a sheath region followed by smooth rotations in the magnetic field components thereafter, especially for much of 2022-08-20.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2022-08-19T17:02Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 5.0

Predicted Arrival Time: 2022-08-19T01:00Z
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 4.0 - 6.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
Prediction Method Note:

Met Office ENLIL settings.
ENLIL version: 2.7
Resolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)
Ambient settings: a3b2-sa1
WSA version: 2.2

Please specify following CME input parameters.
Time at 21.5Rs boundary: 2022-08-16T07:40Z
Radial velocity (km/s): 607
Longitude (deg): 7W
Latitude (deg): 21S
Half-angular width (deg): 35

Notes: Glancing blow possible
Space weather advisor: Duty forecast

Lead Time: 45.67 hour(s)
Difference: 16.03 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Met Office (Met Office) on 2022-08-17T19:22Z

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