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Prediction for CME (2022-08-17T14:53:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2022-08-17T14:53Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/21245/-1
CME Note: An eruption likely associated with an M2.0-class flare from AR3078. The eruption is seen in SDO 171/193/304 as a brightening with associated opening field lines and ejecta that diverge and deflect partially to the south and partially to the west, likely due to the presence of a coronal hole. The CME was observed to be bright and fairly wide in running difference imagery. Slowly-varying magnetic component rotations were observed to start around 2022-08-20T09:16Z with a potential arrival around 2022-08-20T04:53Z due to the presence of a sharp but weak increase in solar wind density and temperature, but the solar wind data is rather inconclusive of showing a clear interplanetary shock. With an IPS (beginning of an ICME sheath signature) occurring around 2022-08-20T16:00Z, it is possible that there is a complex signature with more than one ICME arrival occurring between 2022-08-20 and 2022-08-21.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
----

Predicted Arrival Time: 2022-08-20T09:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 35.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: Other (SIDC)
Prediction Method Note:

See prediction details from SIDC Ursigram excerpt below:
:Issued: 2022 Aug 18 1239 UTC
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC     #
# (RWC Belgium)                                                      #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
SIDC URSIGRAM 20818
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 18 Aug 2022, 1238UT
SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 18 Aug 2022 until 20 Aug 2022) 
SOLAR FLARES  : C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%) 
GEOMAGNETISM  : Minor storm expected (A>=30 or K=5) 
SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet 
PREDICTIONS FOR 18 Aug 2022  10CM FLUX: 120 / AP: 023 
PREDICTIONS FOR 19 Aug 2022  10CM FLUX: 118 / AP: 025 
PREDICTIONS FOR 20 Aug 2022  10CM FLUX: 116 / AP: 016
COMMENT: Solar flaring activity was at moderate levels. NOAA AR 3078 was responsible for most of the flaring activity, the strongest of which were an M2.0 and M1.0 flare, peaking on August 17 at 13:45 UT and 14:52 UT, respectively. The region also produced 2 further M1 flares on the morning of August 18, with an associated Type IV radio signature. NOAA AR3082 and NOAA AR3081 produced low level C-class flares. NOAA AR 3083 decayed and was quiet. Solar flaring activity is expected to be at low levels, with C-class flares expected, M-class flares possible and there is chance for an X-class flare.

Two coronal mass ejections (CMEs), associated with the M2 and M1 flares, produced by NOAA AR3078. Due to the close timing of these events the CMEs are difficult to distinguish in the coronagraph imagery. The first signature is observed in SOHO/LASCO-C2 at 14:30 UT on August 17, with one eruption directed towards the south east and the other more directed towards the south. Given the location of the source region, a glancing blow at Earth may be expected early on August 20.

Lead Time: 44.50 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Carina Alden (M2M Office) on 2022-08-18T12:30Z

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