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Prediction for CME (2022-08-18T11:00:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2022-08-18T11:00Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/21261/-1
CME Note: The CME has a separate shock that is wider than the bulk of the CME. The bulk is visible to the SW in SOHO LASCO C2, C3 and STEREO A COR2. The shock is wider and more faint. There is a visible EUV wave along the SE of the source location as seen in SDO/AIA 193, moving/opening field lines are visible in SDO/AIA 193 and 171. Filament material is seen ejecting from the source location in SDO/AIA 304 and STEREO A EUVI 195. The eruption begins around 10:10Z with a flare as the potential trigger. The arrival is characterized by a rapid increase in solar wind density, magnetic field intensity, temperature, and speed with some component rotations present in the magnetic field after a period of very little to no rotation present in the magnetic field starting around 2022-08-20T17:24Z. These arrival signatures may be that of an ICME sheath that is followed by a flux rope beginning 2022-08-21T03:55Z but may also include more than one ICME arrival given the complexity of the solar wind signature.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2022-08-20T17:24Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 4.0

Predicted Arrival Time: 2022-08-20T16:13Z
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 4.0 - 6.0
Prediction Method: SARM
Prediction Method Note: 
CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2022-08-18 14:10
 - Time at C2: 2022-08-18 11:00
 - Radial speed: 1076.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 35 deg
 - Eruption location: S30W17
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - In-situ shock speed: 728.80 km/s
   - Shock arrival time: 2022-08-20 16:13 (i.e. predicted transit time: 53.22 hours)
Lead Time: 44.22 hour(s)
Difference: 1.18 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Marlon Nunez (UMA) on 2022-08-18T21:11Z
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