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Prediction for CME (2022-08-18T11:00:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2022-08-18T11:00Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/21261/-1
CME Note: The CME has a separate shock that is wider than the bulk of the CME. The bulk is visible to the SW in SOHO LASCO C2, C3 and STEREO A COR2. The shock is wider and more faint. There is a visible EUV wave along the SE of the source location as seen in SDO/AIA 193, moving/opening field lines are visible in SDO/AIA 193 and 171. Filament material is seen ejecting from the source location in SDO/AIA 304 and STEREO A EUVI 195. The eruption begins around 10:10Z with a flare as the potential trigger. The arrival is characterized by a rapid increase in solar wind density, magnetic field intensity, temperature, and speed with some component rotations present in the magnetic field after a period of very little to no rotation present in the magnetic field starting around 2022-08-20T17:24Z. These arrival signatures may be that of an ICME sheath that is followed by a flux rope beginning 2022-08-21T03:55Z but may also include more than one ICME arrival given the complexity of the solar wind signature.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2022-08-20T17:24Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 4.0

Predicted Arrival Time: 2022-08-21T03:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 55.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: Other (SIDC)
Prediction Method Note:

See prediction details from SIDC Ursigram excerpt below:
:Issued: 2022 Aug 19 1237 UTC
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC     #
# (RWC Belgium)                                                      #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
SIDC URSIGRAM 20819
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 19 Aug 2022, 1236UT
SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 19 Aug 2022 until 21 Aug 2022) 
SOLAR FLARES  : C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%) 
GEOMAGNETISM  : Minor storm expected (A>=30 or K=5) 
SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet 
PREDICTIONS FOR 19 Aug 2022  10CM FLUX: 112 / AP: 013 
PREDICTIONS FOR 20 Aug 2022  10CM FLUX: 107 / AP: 034 
PREDICTIONS FOR 21 Aug 2022  10CM FLUX: 105 / AP: 015
COMMENT: Solar flaring activity was at moderate levels. NOAA AR 3078 is the most complex region on disk and was responsible for most of the flaring activity, including two M-class flares: an impulsive M1.3 and a long duration M1.6, peaking on August 18 at 14:13 UT and August 19 at 04:44 UT, respectively. The M1.6 flare was also associated with a Type II and Type IV radio signature. NOAA AR3081 produced low level C-class flares. NOAA AR 3083 and NOAA AR 3082 decayed and were mostly quiet. A new region, NOAA AR3084, emerged near the central meridian, but is small and with a simple magnetic configuration. Solar flaring activity is expected to be at low levels, with C-class flares expected, M-class flares possible and there is chance for an X-class flare.

A coronal mass ejection (CME), originating from NOAA AR3078 is first observed in SOHO/LASCO-C2 at 11:00 UT on August 18. This event was also associated with a Type II radio emission (speed 749 km/s). Although predominantly directed to the south west, a weak partial-halo shock signature can also be seen. Therefore a glancing blow at Earth may be expected early on August 21. Two further possible CMEs are being investigated: firstly, a dimming associated with the same region, seen in SDO/AIA 193 from 22:16 UT August 18 and secondly, an eruption at 04:45UT August 19 (associated with the reported M1.6 flare). These CMEs will be analysed when the coronagraph data become available.

Lead Time: 29.07 hour(s)
Difference: -9.60 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Carina Alden (M2M Office) on 2022-08-19T12:20Z

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