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CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2022-08-19T04:44:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2022-08-19T04:44Z
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2022-08-22T18:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 20.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 4.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
Prediction Method Note:

Met Office ENLIL settings.
ENLIL version: 2.7
Resolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)
Ambient settings: a3b2-sa1
WSA version: 2.2

Please specify following CME input parameters.
Time at 21.5Rs boundary: 2022-08-19T09:22Z
Radial velocity (km/s): 700
Longitude (deg): 040W
Latitude (deg): 25S
Half-angular width (deg): 40

Notes: Associated with LP M1.6 flare of AR3078. Reassessed due to increased imagery availability. Previous figures (2022-08-19T09:39Z, 458, 039W, 24S, 39). Reduced confidence for arrival, and would be ahead of any CH16 CIR on 22nd 
Space weather advisor: Updated by Kirk Waite, after initial Michael Lawrence/KW forecast

Lead Time: 54.58 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Met Office (Met Office) on 2022-08-20T11:25Z

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